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Third Quarter 2018 - Market Newsletter

After a relaxing summer of benign markets and domestic equity indices setting new highs, volatility came back with a vengeance in October, and with less than a week left in the month, has taken away practically all the gains made so far this year. As of the time of this writing, the S&P 500 is down almost 9% on the month, taking the index negative year-to-date. It’s worth noting is that the leaders for the first three quarters of the year, Tech and Small Caps, are underperforming meaningfully so far in October, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices down 12% and 13.4%, respectively.

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Second Quarter 2018 - Market Newsletter

The domestic economy and stocks showed their resiliency in the second quarter, with GDP expanding over 4% and the S&P500 returning over 3%. Equities are up over 5% from the February lows. Market skittishness has also eased to a more relaxed summer level with the VIX trading in the low- to mid-teens despite continued trade war tensions and concerns of an over-heated and over-extended business cycle. Corporate earnings and business fundamentals show further strength, and investors are basking in the moment. We remain generally sanguine on the economy, which should be supportive for stocks, however we take opportunities like this to narrow our areas of focus rather than leaning into the rally.

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Fourth Quarter 2017 - Market Update

What a year! A prosperous, boring year. There was plenty of domestic and international news and political uncertainty in 2017, but with the economy on sure footing, global markets held their noses and continued to march higher. In the US, the S&P500 returned 21.8%, with the strongest performance coming in the fourth quarter. Volatility has also remained muted as the VIX was range-bound between 10-12% for most of the year. In fixed income, despite three rate hikes, the 30-year Treasury ended the year lower, and the 10-year bond essentially flat.

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